The global electric vehicle market is fracturing along geographic lines. In June, the UK recorded its strongest monthly car sales since 2019, with battery-electric models claiming 30% of the market, while Philippine EV sales jumped 36% in the first quarter despite an overall auto market contraction. Brazil's electrified vehicles—including hybrids—now account for 79% of all car imports. Yet in China, the world's largest EV market, deliveries of pure electric and plug-in hybrid cars fell 7% year-on-year in June, preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association showed, as weak consumer confidence and a 'wait-and-see' attitude took hold.

The divergence is accelerating a reconfiguration of trade. Chinese manufacturers, facing overcapacity and softening domestic demand, are pushing exports aggressively. In Europe, additional tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese-made battery EVs, imposed in October 2024, have not halted market share gains; Chinese brands overtook Japanese marques in Western Europe in May, with sales up 6%, aided by a shift to tariff-exempt plug-in hybrids and local assembly. Brazil's vehicle trade deficit hit a record $5.32 billion in the first half of 2026, with 72% of imports originating in China, up from 50% a year earlier. Mexico, too, saw record first-half sales of 754,000 units, driven by financing and an influx of affordable Chinese models, even as the broader economy grew at just 1%.

The policy response varies by region. The European Commission is evaluating whether to extend tariffs to plug-in hybrids, a move that could test the adaptability of Chinese exporters. Russia, meanwhile, is deepening localisation: the Lipetsk-based Motorinvest plant, which produces Evolute-branded EVs and hybrids, plans to launch full-cycle production of a new C-segment electric crossover by August, after recovering from a February roof collapse that temporarily slowed output. In Australia, evidence of battery durability—with degradation rates as low as 1.8% per year—is easing consumer resistance, helping push EV adoption to nearly one in four new cars sold in June.

Away from the automotive sector, Brazilian agribusiness provided a counter-narrative. Chicken exports reached a record 2.94 million tonnes in the first half, up 12.9% year-on-year, generating $5.7 billion in revenue. Shipments were not disrupted by Middle Eastern tensions, and China remained the top destination. The next milestone for the auto industry is the European Commission's decision on extending tariffs to hybrids, expected in the coming months, which will signal whether the transatlantic trade friction over electric vehicles intensifies or stabilises.