Folarin Balogun was dramatically cleared to play for the United States in their World Cup last-16 match against Belgium on Monday night, after FIFA provisionally suspended the red card he received in the previous round. The decision, confirmed just hours before kick-off at Seattle’s Lumen Field, transforms the outlook for the co-hosts, who had feared losing their top scorer for the most consequential fixture of their campaign. A place in the quarter-finals, against either Portugal or Spain, awaits the winner.

The United States reached this stage by topping Group D and then eliminating Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0, a match in which Balogun was sent off in controversial circumstances. Mauricio Pochettino’s side have displayed a high-tempo, attacking identity throughout the tournament, with Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie providing creative thrust and Tyler Adams anchoring midfield. The mood in the host nation, still buoyant from Independence Day celebrations, has been further lifted by the team’s performances; the squad’s adoption of John Denver’s ‘Take Me Home, Country Roads’ as an unofficial anthem has become a symbol of the connection between players and public. Viewed from Washington, the sense is of a programme finally delivering on its potential, though the memory of a 5-2 friendly defeat to Belgium in March lingers as a cautionary note.

Belgium’s path has been far less serene. Rudi Garcia’s team laboured through a group containing Egypt, Iran and New Zealand, managing only one win and two draws, before staging a remarkable recovery against Senegal in the round of 32. Trailing 2-0 with four minutes of normal time remaining, the Red Devils forced extra time and snatched a 3-2 victory, a result that masked persistent structural frailties. Kevin De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku were substituted with the score at 2-0, and Romelu Lukaku has been used primarily as an impact substitute. European observers note that Belgium, third in 2018 but eliminated in the group stage in 2022, have yet to produce a commanding performance in this tournament. Their historical edge over the United States — six wins in seven meetings, including a 3-0 victory in the 1930 World Cup and a 2-1 win at the same stage in 2014 — offers psychological comfort, but the physical toll of extra time and the raucous Seattle crowd present fresh challenges.

The expected line-ups reflect the contrasting narratives. The United States are set to field their strongest XI, with Balogun leading the line alongside Pulisic and McKennie, and Sergiño Dest providing width from wing-back. Belgium are likely to start with Courtois in goal, a back four shielded by Tielemans, and De Bruyne in an advanced role, though Lukaku’s presence from the outset remains uncertain. The referee is Jordan’s Adham Makhadmed. For the Americans, a victory would equal their best modern World Cup showing, matching the quarter-final runs of 2002 and 2014; for Belgium, it would offer a chance to reassert credentials that have looked fragile throughout the competition.