Defence ministers from the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia have ordered the accelerated deployment of autonomous underwater vehicles under the AUKUS pact, with initial capability expected in 2026 and wider fielding by 2027. The trilateral initiative, announced at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, aims to create a distributed network of unmanned systems to monitor and protect subsea cables, energy pipelines and other critical infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific. The move reflects growing alarm over China’s naval modernisation, including a new stealthy attack submarine and research into ship‑killing hypersonic missiles.

Two emerging Chinese programmes illustrate the urgency. Imagery from Shanghai’s Jiangnan shipyard shows what analysts in London and Washington believe is the Type 095, a next‑generation nuclear attack submarine with an X‑shaped stern and likely pump‑jet propulsion to cut noise. Chinese military‑oriented media also detailed research into sea‑skimming hypersonic missiles that could fly at over five times the speed of sound just metres above the waves, evading radar to strike aircraft carriers with almost no warning. Neither system is yet operational, but both show Beijing’s intent to challenge U.S. undersea and naval strike advantages, defence experts say.

The pressure extends across the region. A Hudson Institute study, released as Tokyo revises its defence strategy, concludes that Chinese H‑6K/N and future H‑20 stealth bombers could deliver thousands of tonnes of cruise missiles and glide bombs daily against Japan by 2030, exploiting gaps in current air defences. The institute urges Japan to add long‑range interceptors and persistent undersea sensors to its planned SHIELD counter‑drone system. Separately, Beijing declared it would conduct regular resource surveys and potentially lay cables in the waters east of Taiwan that it claims as an exclusive economic zone, following Japan–Philippines talks on drawing adjacent boundaries. On the economic front, a Chinese pledge to buy Taiwanese atemoya fruit triggered accusations from Taipei’s agriculture ministry of a ‘raise, trap, kill’ strategy aimed at creating over‑dependence before cutting access.

Seen from Washington and London, the AUKUS drone network is an attempt to build a ‘hybrid fleet’ that can persistently patrol chokepoints and deter sabotage of critical infrastructure. Beijing, for its part, points to its lawful exercise of sovereign rights within its claimed 200‑nautical‑mile zone, whether through a smart squid‑fishing robot undergoing sea trials or plans to map and build underwater infrastructure east of Taiwan. In the coming months, Japan is expected to weigh the Hudson Institute’s recommendations in its defence guidelines, AUKUS members will test new sensor payloads at sea, and Taiwan’s government will seek to diversify agricultural exports. The overlapping military, legal and economic campaigns are likely to keep tensions simmering across the Western Pacific.