ASEAN foreign ministers, meeting in Manila on Tuesday, expressed “serious concern” over the resumption of open conflict between the United States and Iran, warning that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens energy security, trade, and food supply chains across Southeast Asia. In a joint statement issued after a closed-door session, the ministers said the developments “severely undermine the ongoing efforts of key mediators and diminish the prospects for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy.” The statement, confirmed by Philippine officials, also flagged “new implications” for agricultural and fertiliser supply stability.

Viewed from Southeast Asian capitals, the economic exposure is acute. The region, a major oil importer with a combined GDP of $3.8 trillion, relies on the Strait of Hormuz for roughly 60 percent of its energy supplies. According to the International Energy Agency, the disruption has already caused shortages of petroleum derivatives used in fertilisers, plastics, chemicals, and liquefied gas for household cooking. Fuel prices have surged, and the Philippines earlier this year declared a national state of emergency over energy scarcity. ASEAN has sought to fast-track an oil-sharing mechanism to mitigate the impact, while the bloc’s statement noted that the renewed hostilities would have “further implications” for commerce and food security.

Closer to home, the ministers held an informal consultation on Myanmar’s civil war, where the bloc’s five-year-old peace initiative continues to falter. The conflict, triggered by a February 2021 military coup, has killed an estimated 100,000 people. For the Manila meetings, Myanmar is represented by a non-political deputy foreign minister, a status that Philippine officials said reflects the bloc’s ongoing search for a path to re-admit political representatives. ASEAN’s 2026 chair, the Philippines, stated it has communicated with all parties in Myanmar to seek “concrete progress for peace,” but no breakthrough was announced.

Tensions in the South China Sea also featured prominently. Ahead of the gathering, the Philippines accused China’s Coast Guard of striking a Filipino navy personnel with a baton near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. China’s Coast Guard called the accusation “false,” and Beijing summoned the Philippine ambassador. The US State Department condemned what it described as China’s “dangerous and aggressive” actions, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in an opinion piece published upon his arrival in Manila, warned that freedom of navigation was “by no means guaranteed” and that control of the waters by a power willing to use commerce as a geopolitical weapon would pose “dire new threats” to sovereignty and economic futures. Australia separately announced a further $6.7 million contribution to a drone package for the Philippine Coast Guard to boost maritime surveillance.

ASEAN and China are still negotiating a code of conduct for the South China Sea after nearly a decade of talks. The Manila meetings, which run through Friday, will see the arrival of Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, along with top diplomats from India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Russia, Britain, and the European Union. Bilateral discussions on the sidelines are expected, though no formal agenda for a US-China meeting has been confirmed.