Argentina’s national consumer price index rose 1.9% in June, dipping below the 2% threshold for the first time since August 2025 and extending a three-month deceleration that has brought the annualised rate to 33.5%. The figure, published by the INDEC statistics agency, was in line with market expectations and followed a 2.1% print in May. Core inflation, which strips out volatile and regulated prices, fell to 1.6%, its lowest level in eleven months. The data reinforce a narrative of gradual disinflation that the government of President Javier Milei was quick to amplify, with Economy Minister Luis Caputo calling it “the lowest in 10 months” and a sign of the “strength of the disinflation process.”

The moderation was driven largely by a cooling in food prices, which rose just 1.3% on the month, helped by stable beef costs and a seasonal decline in fruit that partially offset sharp increases in vegetables such as tomatoes and potatoes. By contrast, recreation and culture jumped 4.2% as winter holiday packages pushed up tourism costs, while housing, water, electricity and gas climbed 3.3% on the back of higher rents, utility tariffs and building maintenance charges. Regionally, the Pampeana zone recorded the highest monthly increase at 2.0%, while the north-west, Cuyo and Patagonia all came in below the national average, with the latter two at 1.6%. In the province of Córdoba, the local statistics office reported an identical 1.9% monthly rise, with an accumulated first-half rate of 15.9%.

Despite the headline improvement, the cost of the basic consumption basket continued to outpace general inflation. The total basic basket (CBT), which defines the poverty line, rose 2.2% in June, meaning a typical family of four needed 1,531,473 pesos to stay above the poverty threshold, while the food-only indigence line climbed 1.3% to 689,853 pesos. Viewed from Buenos Aires, analysts noted that the gap between goods inflation (1.4%) and services inflation (2.9%) widened further, reflecting a recomposition of relative prices under the government’s exchange-rate anchor. The pass-through from a 5.2% monthly depreciation of the peso was not immediately visible in consumer prices, a dynamic that economists attribute either to compressed margins, weak demand or a lag effect yet to materialise.

The next factual milestone is the release of the central bank’s monthly survey of market expectations, which will update the consensus forecast for July. Early private estimates suggest a possible slight re-acceleration, though the trajectory remains below the peaks seen in March. The government’s ability to sustain the disinflation trend while managing the social cost of still-elevated food and utility bills will be tested in the coming months, particularly as winter energy consumption and the mid-term electoral calendar begin to shape policy decisions.