United States intelligence agencies have formally warned the Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that would undermine efforts to secure a lasting peace agreement with Iran, according to current and former American officials. The assessments, circulated this week, conclude that Netanyahu faces intense domestic political pressure to sustain military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon—a course that would violate a core provision of the nascent US-Iran memorandum calling for an end to hostilities there. The warning has materialised in heightened public friction: Washington has openly cautioned Israel against attacks that could derail the deal, while a planned round of talks in Switzerland was postponed and Vice President JD Vance cancelled his scheduled participation after a Hezbollah drone strike killed four Israeli soldiers and Israel responded with extensive air strikes in southern Lebanon.

Viewed from Washington, the intelligence reports detail a direct link between Netanyahu’s electoral calculus and his posture on Lebanon. With national elections approaching this autumn, one assessment states that his political survival depends on demonstrating to the Israeli public that he will not withdraw forces and intends to escalate the fight against Hezbollah. The reports further describe Israeli frustration with the terms of the peace memorandum, which officials in Jerusalem believe weakens their broader objective of maintaining maximum pressure on Tehran and may constrain Israel’s ability to defend itself against the Iran-backed militia. Trump administration officials counter that the agreement does not prevent Israel from responding to Hezbollah attacks, and they argue that the imperative of finalising the deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to avert a global economic crisis outweighs Israeli concerns.

Within Israel, public opinion provides a strong tailwind for continued operations. A May survey by the Institute for National Security Studies showed 70 percent of Jewish Israelis support intensifying the fight against Hezbollah, and tens of thousands of displaced residents of the north are demanding the group’s destruction. A senior Israeli government official, responding to the intelligence assessment, stated that military activity in Lebanon is conducted “solely to defend Israeli citizens from continuous Hezbollah attacks.” Hardline voices have gone further: National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote on social media that “for every tear shed by an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers should weep” and that “all of Lebanon should burn.” Analysts in Tel Aviv note that any ceasefire or withdrawal would be perceived domestically as a political defeat for Netanyahu, placing him at risk of a major rupture with President Trump, whose support has been instrumental to his political standing.

A second American official quoted in the intelligence reporting warned that even if Israel does not expand its operations, the mere refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon could unravel the fragile US-Iran framework. “Continuing to occupy part of Lebanon is a recipe for disaster,” the official said, adding that without a full Israeli withdrawal, a resumption of full-scale hostilities between the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah is almost certain. Former US military and intelligence analysts point out that Washington possesses concrete leverage—cutting off munitions, jet fuel, maintenance support, intelligence sharing, or withdrawing American forces protecting Israeli airspace—to limit the scope of any Israeli campaign, though no such steps have been signalled.

The memorandum of understanding, announced by Trump in France on Wednesday, remains in a precarious state. Talks scheduled to begin in Switzerland were delayed indefinitely as both American and Iranian officials acknowledged the deteriorating situation on the ground. The dossier now hinges on whether Netanyahu opts to heed Washington’s warnings or prioritises the domestic imperative to continue the Lebanon campaign, with the next visible milestone being any resumption of direct US-Iran negotiations.