The European Union formally opened accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on Monday, launching the first so-called “Fundamentals” cluster of talks after Budapest finally dropped its veto. The breakthrough came following a change of government in Hungary, where new Prime Minister Péter Magyar reached an accord with Kyiv on guarantees for the Hungarian minority, unblocking a process that had been frozen for years. At a ceremony in Luxembourg, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka described the moment as a “Rubicon”, underscoring the deep symbolic weight for a nation fighting to anchor itself in Western structures.

The diplomatic advance unfolded against a grim backdrop: hours before the talks, Russia launched one of its largest aerial assaults in months, firing 611 drones and 70 missiles at Ukrainian targets. The barrage served as a stark reminder of the war’s intensity and the security vacuum that EU membership is increasingly expected to fill. With NATO accession effectively off the table and U.S.-led peace initiatives faltering, membership of the bloc has become, in the view of many Western capitals, the most credible long-term security guarantee available to Kyiv.

Moldova, too, began its own negotiations on the same cluster, covering rule of law, fundamental rights, democratic institutions, public administration reform and economic criteria. Both countries were granted candidate status in 2022, but the path ahead is arduous. The “Fundamentals” cluster is opened first and closed last, meaning progress here will bookend the entire process. Ukraine must still align its laws with the vast acquis communautaire across 35 policy chapters, from agriculture to taxation, while simultaneously prosecuting a war. European officials have praised Kyiv’s reform efforts, but privately acknowledge that accession is likely to take many years, with comparisons drawn to Montenegro’s stalled bid since 2012.

Viewed from Moscow, the negotiations are portrayed as a technical process that Kyiv has agreed to undertake on existing terms, with Russian-language outlets noting Ukraine’s pledge to meet all intermediate and final criteria. In Brussels and other European capitals, however, the move is cast as a strategic investment in continental stability. “The future of Ukraine and its citizens is firmly tied to the European Union,” said Marilena Raouna, Cyprus’s deputy minister for European affairs, speaking for the EU Council presidency. As the talks progress, the challenge will be to maintain momentum through the remaining five clusters—Kyiv hopes to open them by July—while keeping enlargement fatigue at bay. For now, the opening of negotiations represents a political and moral lifeline for a country under fire, even if the finish line remains distant.