President Donald Trump signalled on Tuesday that Washington is poised to reimpose sanctions on Russian oil shipments, telling the G7 summit in Evian that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has removed the need for the temporary exemptions introduced in March. “Soon we will be able to do that, because the oil is now flowing,” Trump said, explaining that the earlier decision to ease restrictions was driven solely by a desire to avoid a supply shock that could cripple the global economy. The remarks, delivered on the sidelines of the leaders’ gathering in France, were seen as a clear message that the brief era of American forbearance on Russian crude is drawing to a close.

Viewed from Washington, the sanctions waiver was always a reluctant and conditional concession. When the US launched military operations against Iran in early March, Tehran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes. The disruption sent Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time in years, prompting the Treasury to issue a 30-day licence on 5 March that permitted India to purchase Russian oil already loaded on tankers. That licence was swiftly broadened to cover all countries, effectively suspending key elements of the sanctions regime imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil the previous autumn. American officials stressed at the time that the move was a temporary measure to stabilise markets, not a strategic shift.

With a peace deal now reached with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic — full reopening is expected by 19 June — the rationale for the waiver has evaporated. Oil prices have already fallen sharply, with Brent dipping below $80 a barrel on the prospect of restored flows. In European capitals, the temporary sanctions relief had caused unease, as allies feared it would undermine the broader effort to squeeze Moscow’s energy revenues. Trump’s latest comments will therefore be welcomed in London, Paris and Berlin, where leaders have been pressing for a return to maximum economic pressure on the Kremlin over its invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow, for its part, has argued that the waiver proved the sanctions were unsustainable and damaging to global markets. Yet the White House calculus appears to have shifted decisively. Analysts in London note that the speed with which Trump signalled a reversal suggests the administration is keen to reassert its sanctions leverage before the oil market fully stabilises. The precise timing remains unclear — Trump said the US would be “in a position to do it soon” — but the direction of travel is unmistakable. As the Strait of Hormuz reopens and crude prices retreat, the brief window of relief for Russian oil exports looks set to close, restoring a central pillar of the West’s economic campaign against Moscow.