The second round of bilateral technical talks between Mexico and the United States concluded in Washington on 18 June, clearing the way for the formal trilateral review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, known as T-MEC in Mexico and CUSMA in Canada) to begin on 1 July. That date marks the start of a process that will determine the pact’s future, yet it arrives under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s repeated statements that the US would be better off without the deal and his preference to “terminate” it. The immediate effect is a deepening of uncertainty for North American supply chains, even as negotiators press ahead with detailed work.

The 1 July meeting will be held virtually, with each country presenting its position on the path forward. The treaty’s text allows for either an automatic 16-year extension or a 10-year term with annual reviews. Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard confirmed that no final decision is expected that day; rather, it will set the roadmap. In parallel, the bilateral rounds have produced concrete advances: the two sides agreed to establish a committee to review implementation of Chapter 12 sectoral annexes—covering chemicals, medical devices, pharmaceuticals and ICT—to improve regulatory compatibility. Discussions also advanced on rules of origin for industrial goods, economic security, agriculture, labour and environment, as well as steel, aluminium and automotive trade.

Viewed from Mexico City, the priority is to safeguard the preferential access that has made Mexico the top exporter to the US, with an average tariff of just 4% compared with over 30% for China. Mexican negotiators are seeking to reverse or at least contain the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium and to defend regional content rules in the automotive sector. From Washington, the administration’s economic nationalism frames the review as a tool to reindustrialise the US and reduce dependence on Asian suppliers—China remains the unspoken focus. Ottawa, meanwhile, acknowledges that Trump’s antipathy to the pact is “no secret,” but Prime Minister Mark Carney points to assurances from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that the underlying structure is solid. Canada is using the talks to push for resolution of long-standing disputes such as softwood lumber, where US imports of Russian timber have drawn particular ire.

The US posture mirrors its approach in parallel talks with Brazil, where officials in Brasília now see little flexibility and expect a 12.5% tariff to be consolidated. This pattern of aggressive bilateralism reinforces the view that the T-MEC review will be a protracted contest rather than a routine renewal. The next concrete milestone is the in-person trilateral round scheduled for 20 July in Mexico City, where negotiators are expected to begin discussing detailed texts. Until then, the gap between Trump’s public threats and the technical engagement of his trade team leaves the future of North American economic integration hanging in the balance.