Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recorded its highest single-day volume in two months on June 18, with 25 verified transits, according to maritime analytics firms AXSMarine and Windward. The figure is five times the daily average seen in early June and marks a tangible first step in unwinding the 109-day blockade that had stranded over 500 vessels in the Persian Gulf. Yet the pace of recovery is far from pre-war norms, when some 120 tankers and cargo ships crossed daily, and the central channel remains impassable.

Within hours of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding taking effect, shipping trackers noted a trickle of outbound vessels—many of them long-idle oil and LNG tankers—as Washington lifted its naval cordon on Iranian ports. Tehran reciprocated by publishing new transit rules that require 48 hours advance notice, while waiving shipping tariffs and Iranian insurance fees for the 60-day negotiation window. The memorandum’s language, however, leaves open the prospect of a future toll system, a move that would breach UN conventions on innocent passage through international straits and is viewed with concern by European shipowners’ associations.

Navigation remains severely constrained. Mine clearance of the central lane, where Iranian forces laid an estimated 80 sea mines, will take a minimum of 40 to 50 days using sonar-equipped underwater vehicles, according to the tanker owners’ body Intertanko. Until then, vessels are limited to the narrower northern and southern corridors hugging the Iranian and Omani coasts, which analysts in London suggest could handle at most 80 ships per day if uninterrupted security is guaranteed—a condition Tehran has not pledged. Major carriers, including Maersk, have publicly stated they will not resume transits until comprehensive risk assessments are completed.

The resumption, however tentative, has already deflated the risk premium in crude markets. Brent prices fell sharply after the June 14 accord, with Swissquote analysts attributing the initial relief to “fast falling prices” in energy and transport sectors. Yet market watchers in Singapore caution that a durable disinflationary trend depends on insured two-way traffic: tanker owners must have confidence they can load at Iraqi, Kuwaiti and Saudi terminals without becoming trapped by a renewed flare-up. The first true test will be whether outbound volumes sustain above 30 vessels per day over the coming weeks and whether larger container lines begin to schedule port calls deeper inside the Gulf.