Iranian meteorological authorities have issued an orange weather warning for a broad swath of the country’s north, signalling a heightened risk of flash floods, river surges and travel disruption as a vigorous storm system sweeps across the region. The alert, the second-highest on the national scale, covers northern reaches of East and West Azerbaijan, the centre and south of Ardabil, highlands and foothills in Gilan and Mazandaran, the southeastern corner of North Khorasan, elevated areas of western Golestan, and parts of Razavi Khorasan. Forecasters expect intense downpours accompanied by thunder, hail and sudden strong winds to peak on Monday and Tuesday, with localised accumulations capable of triggering dangerous runoff in mountainous terrain. Residents have been urged to avoid riverbanks and seasonal watercourses, postpone non-essential travel, and refrain from outdoor recreation in exposed areas.

In the capital, Tehran, the picture is one of disruptive winds and dust rather than drenching rain. The provincial meteorological office predicts largely clear to partly cloudy skies through the next five days, but warns that southern and western districts will be lashed by strong gusts capable of whipping up dust and reducing visibility until Tuesday. From midweek, scattered showers and the rumble of thunder may develop over the foothills and higher elevations during afternoon hours, though these are expected to remain isolated. A notable shift arrives from Wednesday onward, when a gradual rise in temperatures will push the mercury higher across the province, with Tehran city itself forecast to reach a maximum of 33 degrees Celsius on Tuesday under blustery conditions.

Viewed from across the Gulf, the same broad atmospheric pattern is generating markedly different effects. The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology forecasts a generally clear to partly cloudy day on Tuesday, but with occasional dust haze and low cloud over northern areas, alongside a distinct drop in temperatures. Winds will be southwesterly to northwesterly at 10 to 25 kilometres per hour, gusting to 40 kilometres per hour and stirring dust. The Arabian Gulf is expected to be light to moderate, becoming rough in western waters, while the Sea of Oman remains relatively calm. Iranian marine forecasts similarly warn of rough conditions persisting in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman for the next five days, with the Caspian Sea churning for at least three.

Further east and south, the storm’s influence will linger into the latter half of the week. By Thursday, residual downpours and thunder are forecast for parts of the northwest, the Caspian littoral provinces and the southern reaches of Sistan and Baluchestan, a pattern that suggests the system will track slowly southeastward before weakening. Across the northeast, east and the southern slopes of the Alborz mountains, strong winds and intermittent dust storms will remain a hazard through Wednesday, while central parts of the country may also experience blustery conditions.

For a region accustomed to sharp seasonal transitions, this episode underscores the volatile interplay between late-spring moisture and the intense surface heating that fuels convection. As the system decays toward the weekend, the focus will shift to rising temperatures in Tehran and a gradual calming of maritime conditions, though forecasters caution that localised thunderstorm activity in highland zones may persist. The broader message from authorities is one of vigilance: even short-lived downpours in arid catchments can turn deadly, and the combination of dust, wind and rough seas demands caution from mariners and motorists alike.