Three Saudi-flagged supertankers laden with six million barrels of crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the largest such movement in weeks and offering the first tangible sign that a newly signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding could begin to ease the energy disruption that has gripped global markets since late February. The vessels, which had been concealing their positions for weeks along with other tankers, reappeared on public tracking systems just hours after President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, put their signatures to the accord on Wednesday. The transit signals a tentative restoration of confidence in the strategic waterway, through which a significant portion of the world’s seaborne oil normally passes.

For weeks, Saudi Arabia had been forced to reroute exports through its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, a longer and costlier alternative, as the conflict that erupted on 28 February choked off the Gulf’s main export artery. The memorandum of understanding, which was expected to enter into force within two days, appears to have prompted an immediate, if cautious, resumption of traffic. Viewed from Riyadh, the sailings represent a crucial step towards normalising export logistics; from Tehran, the deal offers respite from the economic and military pressure that has accompanied the hostilities. Yet shipping companies and insurers, particularly in London and Singapore, caution that a full return to pre-war traffic levels will require time. Safe passage must be demonstrably guaranteed, and naval mines laid during the fighting will need to be cleared before the industry fully commits.

That cautious optimism is being tested by events elsewhere in the region. On Thursday morning, Israeli forces launched fresh airstrikes in Lebanon, where more than a million people have been displaced by the fighting. The strikes raise pointed questions about how far Washington is willing or able to compel its wartime allies to halt offensives that the US president has now pledged to end. The persistence of violence on the Lebanese front underscores the multi-theatre nature of the crisis and the limits of a bilateral understanding between Washington and Tehran in pacifying a broader conflict.

Viewed from energy trading hubs in Europe and Asia, the resumption of Hormuz transits is a bullish signal for the normalisation of crude supply, but it is tempered by the reality that the memorandum’s enforcement mechanisms remain untested. The coming days will reveal whether the Strait of Hormuz can once again function as a reliable artery for global oil shipments, or whether the tentative sailings are merely a brief interlude in a wider, still-unresolved confrontation. Much will depend on whether the diplomatic momentum can be translated into durable security guarantees across all affected fronts.