Russia’s economy contracted by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier, the state statistics service Rosstat confirmed on Wednesday, matching its preliminary estimate. The decline, which brought nominal GDP to 49.9 trillion roubles, was heavily influenced by an unusually cold winter and three fewer working days than in the same period of 2025. Construction bore the brunt, with value added plunging 9.7 per cent, while manufacturing, transport and water supply also retreated. Yet the data were not uniformly bleak: information and communications grew 4.8 per cent, and hospitality rose 4.6 per cent. The central bank in Moscow has already signalled it expects a rebound in the second quarter, forecasting 0.9 per cent year-on-year growth as the calendar effect reverses and activity normalises.

In Brasília, the central bank’s IBC-Br index, a widely watched proxy for GDP, showed the Brazilian economy expanded 0.51 per cent in April from March on a seasonally adjusted basis, missing market expectations of a 0.6 per cent gain. The reading nonetheless marked an improvement after a revised 0.18 per cent drop in March, which was initially reported as a much steeper 0.67 per cent contraction. Services and industry drove the monthly advance, rising 0.27 per cent and 0.36 per cent respectively, while agriculture was virtually stagnant. The first quarter had been robust, with official GDP up 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1.8 per cent year-on-year, but the April data suggest the economy is entering a more subdued phase, consistent with a widely anticipated deceleration after a strong start to the year.

Mexico City’s national statistics institute offered a forward-looking view, with its IOAE timely indicator projecting annual economic growth of 1.4 per cent in April and 1.1 per cent in May. The expansion is expected to be led by secondary and tertiary activities, with industry advancing 1.8 per cent and services 1.7 per cent in April. Meanwhile, in Bogotá, analysts anticipate the ISE economic tracking index for April will show a 3.4 per cent year-on-year rise, down from 4.0 per cent in March, as Colombia’s recovery remains uneven. Services and primary sectors are expected to carry the momentum, while manufacturing and construction continue to lag, reflecting a pattern of lopsided growth across the region.

Taken together, the data releases paint a picture of emerging economies navigating a complex landscape of domestic constraints and external headwinds. Russia’s contraction appears largely technical and likely to reverse, but the underlying weakness in construction and retail trade points to subdued domestic demand. Brazil’s cooling, though orderly, will test the central bank’s policy stance as it balances inflation risks with a slowing real economy. Mexico’s modest projections and Colombia’s deceleration underscore the fragility of the recovery in Latin America, where structural bottlenecks and global trade uncertainties remain potent drags. Viewed from London, the second half of 2026 will demand careful policy calibration across these markets to sustain growth without stoking instability.