Nigeria's fiscal trajectory has drawn sharp criticism from Lagos-based civic technology group BudgIT, which labelled the government's 2026 budget "ambitious but unrealistic". With projected revenues of N36.9 trillion against expenditures of N68.3 trillion, the deficit of N31.5 trillion represents 6.4 per cent of GDP—more than double the 3 per cent ceiling mandated by the country's Fiscal Responsibility Act. The organisation warned that only 53.9 per cent of the budget can be financed from actual revenues, leaving a gaping hole to be filled by borrowing and loans, a structural imbalance that has become entrenched despite repeated warnings from observers.

In Jakarta, by contrast, the fiscal machinery is advancing with detailed multi-year allocations. Indonesia's parliament approved an indicative budget of Rp49.8 trillion for the Ministry of Finance for 2027, with the bulk directed towards management support. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources secured a 26 per cent increase to Rp27.33 trillion, of which 82 per cent is earmarked for strategic infrastructure, including Rp5.2 trillion to extend household gas networks to nearly one million new connections. Separately, the General Elections Commission pencilled in Rp1.4 trillion to begin preparations for the 2029 polls, signalling a long electoral runway. Meanwhile, Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia signalled a relaxation of coal production quotas to capitalise on rising prices driven by the US-Israel-Iran conflict, a move that could bolster state revenues but raises environmental concerns.

Viewed from Brasília, the picture is one of gradual deterioration. The Brazilian government's Prisma Fiscal survey, released on Monday, showed market participants now expect a primary deficit of R$59 billion for the central government in 2026, up from R$57.8 billion in the previous month's survey. Projections for 2027 also worsened, underscoring persistent scepticism about the government's ability to rein in spending. The report, compiled by the Secretariat of Economic Policy, reflects a broader Latin American challenge of balancing social demands with fiscal consolidation.

Taken together, these snapshots from three continents illustrate the divergent strategies emerging economies are adopting amid global uncertainty. Nigeria's reliance on borrowing to sustain an expansive budget tests the limits of its fiscal law, while Indonesia is betting on infrastructure and commodity revenues to drive growth, even if that means loosening environmental constraints. Brazil's incremental deficit creep suggests that without structural reforms, market confidence will remain fragile. For all three, the coming year will be a stress test of whether ambitious spending plans can be reconciled with the hard arithmetic of public accounts.