President Alexander Lukashenko has injected a explosive new claim into the narrative of the Ukraine war, alleging that the Vatican and “the Jewish lobby” — specifically Israelis — tricked the Kremlin into pulling back its forces from Kyiv in 2022, thereby preventing a swift Russian victory. Speaking to the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television channel, the Belarusian leader, one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies, said that “certain forces” had promised peace on behalf of Volodymyr Zelensky, persuading Moscow to withdraw its forward units. “In yet another instance, I know, these forces deceived. It was the Vatican. And, surprisingly, the Jewish lobby, the Israelis,” Lukashenko stated, according to multiple Russian news agencies. The remarks, published on Monday, were widely carried by state and independent outlets in Russia and picked up internationally, marking a rare attempt by a senior figure in Moscow’s orbit to publicly name alleged saboteurs of the early peace process.

Yet the interview was equally notable for Lukashenko’s strenuous efforts to reassure Ukraine that Belarus poses no military danger. He insisted that Kyiv has “absolutely nothing” to fear from Minsk, describing his own country as “very vulnerable” with its critical infrastructure “in plain sight” of Ukrainian forces. He revealed that he and Putin had repeatedly discussed the inadmissibility of dragging Belarus into the conflict, with the Russian president reportedly agreeing that such a move would bring “more harm than good.” Lukashenko warned that any Belarusian entry would risk drawing in NATO troops, transforming the war into a Russia–Belarus confrontation with the alliance. Addressing Zelensky’s earlier threats to strike targets inside Belarus, he invoked the proverb “as you sing, so shall you be mourned,” while conceding he may have “overdone” his retort to the Ukrainian leader’s “inappropriate” statements.

Lukashenko painted a picture of a grinding stalemate in which battlefield victory is unrealistic for either side. He argued that both Moscow and Kyiv are suffering manpower shortages, but that Ukraine’s deficit is acute: “He has no people. That is one of the peculiarities of this year.” Western backers, he claimed, are now telling Zelensky he needs soldiers, not weapons. The Belarusian president also cast doubt on reports of Ukrainian troop concentrations near his border, reasoning that Kyiv cannot afford to weaken its thousand-kilometre front line. His call for “compromises” to reach a peace agreement — with the caveat that the details must be settled at the negotiating table, not by him — signalled a desire to be seen as a potential mediator, even as he blamed external actors for the war’s prolongation.

Viewed from Western capitals, Lukashenko’s allegations about the Vatican and Israel are likely to be dismissed as unsubstantiated revisionism aimed at deflecting responsibility from Moscow’s own military setbacks. Yet his broader message — that Belarus is being pulled reluctantly into a confrontation it does not want, and that even NATO and Washington see no benefit in direct intervention because of the nuclear risks — reflects a nuanced positioning. Analysts in London note that Minsk has been quietly improving ties with Washington, and Lukashenko did not rule out a future meeting with Donald Trump. As the war enters its fifth year with no end in sight, the interview underscores how even the Kremlin’s closest partners are now publicly grappling with the conflict’s origins and searching for an exit, while carefully managing their own precarious security.