The first Iranian oil tankers to break through the United States naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have sailed into open waters, carrying 3.8 million barrels of crude and marking the resumption of exports halted since mid-April. Satellite tracking data confirmed that the supertankers Diona and Hero 2 crossed the blockade line on Tuesday, with a third vessel, Stream, approaching Iranian ports on Wednesday. The movement comes just days before Iranian and American negotiators are due to sign a ceasefire agreement and begin talks on a final settlement. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Iran’s daily oil production collapsed by more than one million barrels in May, falling to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) as onshore storage filled to over 80 per cent of capacity and more than 60 million barrels remained trapped at sea.

Viewed from Moscow, the disruption has underscored the contrasting fortunes of major producers. Russia’s total oil exports held steady at 7.35 million bpd in May, but a shift in the product mix—crude exports rising while refined product shipments fell—saw overall revenues drop by $710 million to $20.8 billion. That figure remains near historic highs and is more than $8 billion above the same month a year earlier, according to the IEA. Global oil prices initially retreated on news that the Strait of Hormuz was reopening, yet the relief was tempered by renewed Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon, which cast a shadow over the optimism surrounding the nascent peace process.

The blockade, imposed in mid-April as part of the military campaign that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, had effectively shut off Iran’s main source of hard currency. Western energy analysts note that the rapid restoration of shipments reflects Tehran’s enduring strategic leverage over the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil consumption passes. As Reuters reported, the interim ceasefire agreement includes an Iranian commitment to keep the strait open, implicitly acknowledging that the waterway’s status remains tied to decisions in Tehran. Al Jazeera footage showed the tankers departing, while Iranian state-aligned media emphasised that control of Hormuz would remain a “strategic tool” even after a deal.

The negotiations set to begin on Friday at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland will address Iran’s nuclear programme and the lifting of sanctions, a process that could reshape the global oil supply landscape for years. Analysts in London caution that the path from a temporary ceasefire to a durable agreement is fraught with risk, not least because of the volatile regional environment—Israeli operations in Lebanon and the unresolved status of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. For now, the sight of laden tankers steaming out of the Gulf offers a tentative signal that the two-month oil standoff may be drawing to a close, but the broader geopolitical currents remain as turbulent as ever.