American intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran now possesses the capability to effectively seal the Strait of Hormuz at a time of its choosing, a strategic shift that hands Tehran a powerful new lever over the global economy even as a framework agreement to reopen the waterway is expected to be signed this week. The assessment, relayed by sources familiar with the findings, suggests that the recent conflict in the Gulf demonstrated not only Iran’s intent but its operational capacity to severely disrupt maritime traffic through the narrow chokepoint, which carries a significant share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports. One source described the development in stark terms, calling it a weapon “more powerful than any nuclear bomb” that Washington has now effectively ceded to the Islamic Republic.

Viewed from Washington, the intelligence represents a sobering recalibration of the military balance in the Gulf. Despite claims that Iran’s conventional forces were decimated during the fighting, the regime retains a substantial arsenal of underwater mines, fast-attack craft, and coastal missile batteries that can be deployed to manage the strait. The findings indicate that Iran’s ability to close the passage is not contingent on a breakdown of the provisional ceasefire or the broader nuclear negotiations that the strait’s reopening is meant to facilitate; rather, it is a permanent new reality that Tehran can activate at will.

From Moscow to Mumbai, the geopolitical implications are being analysed with growing unease. Russian media have framed the intelligence as evidence that de facto control of the strait has been transferred to Iran, while Indian and Indonesian commentary underscores the acute vulnerability of Asian economies that depend heavily on Gulf energy supplies. In Gulf capitals, the assessment is seen as confirmation that the war has fundamentally altered the regional power calculus, leaving traditional US allies and global markets exposed to a chokehold that no diplomatic framework can easily unwind.

Further complicating the outlook, US intelligence indicates that Iran is already planning to extend its maritime coercion strategy to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, the narrow passage linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, with the help of Yemen’s Houthi allies. Such a move would encircle the Arabian Peninsula, creating a twin bottleneck that could paralyse shipping routes between Europe and Asia. Analysts in London note that even if the Hormuz agreement holds, the mere knowledge that Iran can replicate its blockade tactics elsewhere introduces a persistent risk premium into global energy markets and undermines the credibility of any limited ceasefire. The war may have ended, but the economic shadow it has cast is only beginning to lengthen.