The ink had barely dried on a US-Iran memorandum of understanding, brokered by Pakistan and intended to silence guns across the Middle East, when south Lebanon erupted again. By Monday morning, Israeli warplanes had struck the town of Majdal Zoun, a drone hit Kfar Tebnit, and sustained artillery fire rained down on Nabatieh and surrounding villages. Hezbollah, which had initially signalled it would halt operations, declared it had repelled an Israeli ground advance near Kfar Tebnit using guided missiles and Ababil drones, calling the attack a direct response to a ceasefire violation. The sequence laid bare the fragility of an accord that was meant to bring a comprehensive halt to hostilities, including the three-month war between Israel and the Iran-backed group.

On the ground, the contradictions were stark. Israeli drone strikes targeted two cars and a motorcycle in Kfar Tebnit, killing at least one driver and wounding several others, among them a Lebanese reporter hit by shell fragments. Hezbollah’s military media detailed an engagement at 18:15 against a bulldozer and two Merkava tanks advancing from the Arnoun-Al-Kamasha area, forcing them to retreat. Yet Israel’s Channel 12 reported that all military activities in the south had been halted and that troops were prohibited from interfering with displaced residents returning home. The dissonance between official Israeli claims and the reality of ongoing fire suggested either fragmented command discipline or a deliberate attempt to reshape facts on the ground before the deal could take hold.

Politically, the deal was greeted with a mixture of welcome and defiance. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir dismissed it as non-binding, insisting Israel would continue its campaign, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told US President Donald Trump that Israeli forces would not withdraw. Hezbollah, in contrast, issued a statement hailing the memorandum as a “major breakthrough” and thanking Iran’s leadership and people for their steadfastness, but warned it would not accept any attack on Lebanese sovereignty. Lebanese officials, meanwhile, were left in the dark: an anonymous source confirmed Beirut had not been informed of the agreement’s terms, underscoring how the country had been sidelined in a negotiation that directly determined its fate. Despite the uncertainty, columns of displaced civilians packed into cars at the Qasmiyeh bridge, flashing victory signs as they headed south, their hope running ahead of any security guarantees.

Viewed from Tehran, the deal is a vindication of Iran’s resilience and a strategic pause that leaves Hezbollah’s capabilities intact. From Washington, it represents a diplomatic gambit to de-escalate a spiralling regional war, yet the absence of any public detail on Israeli withdrawal or the future of Hezbollah’s arsenal means the core disputes remain unresolved. Analysts in London note that the ceasefire is already being tested by both sides probing its boundaries, with each violation setting a precedent that could unravel the entire framework. The coming days will determine whether the memorandum can be translated into a durable calm, or whether it merely papered over irreconcilable positions, leaving Lebanon once again as the arena where a wider conflict resumes.