The global housing finance landscape is showing signs of severe strain, with multiple markets reporting a sharp contraction in mortgage lending and a parallel rise in informal credit mechanisms. In Iran, the share of bank loans allocated to housing has plummeted to just 2.8 percent of total lending in the first two months of the current fiscal year, the lowest level since 2013. This represents a real decline of 51 percent in housing loan volumes compared to the previous year, according to data from Donya-e Eqtesad. The squeeze has pushed borrowers toward unregulated alternatives, including a troubling new phenomenon where mobile SIM cards are used as collateral for loans with interest rates as high as 95 percent of the card's value. The practice, reported by Economy News, transfers ownership of the SIM card to the lender until the loan is repaid, exposing borrowers to significant risk.

In Argentina, the mortgage market is also contracting. According to a report by the Fundación Tejido Urbano, rising interest rates and shorter repayment terms have made mortgages more selective, reducing the number of households able to access home financing. In April, the province of Buenos Aires recorded 9,999 property deeds, of which only 1,023 involved mortgages, underscoring the tightening conditions. The total mortgage stock stood at 8.1 trillion pesos (approximately $5.7 billion) at the end of the first quarter of 2026, with individuals holding the majority of that debt.

Meanwhile, in Iran, government-backed housing assistance programs are falling far short of demand. The head of the Roads and Urban Development Department of Zanjan province revealed that only 6 percent of tenants in the province received rental assistance loans last year, with banks disbursing just 5,000 loans against a real need of 50,000. Even among those who managed to register, fewer than 30 percent ultimately received funding. The government has announced increases in rental loan ceilings—up to 350 million tomans in Tehran—and new childbearing and pilgrimage loans, but implementation remains sluggish.

Italy presents a contrasting picture. In the Lazio region, mortgage lending surged 20 percent in the first months of 2026 compared to the previous year, with over 6 billion euros disbursed. Notably, more than a third of these loans went to borrowers under 35, many of whom were supported by the state-backed Consap guarantee fund, which helps first-time buyers overcome the down payment hurdle. This suggests that targeted public intervention can sustain housing demand even in a high-interest-rate environment.

Looking ahead, the divergence in housing finance trends highlights the critical role of policy frameworks. In markets where formal credit is scarce, informal lending fills the void at high cost to borrowers. The Iranian experience, where even government programs reach only a fraction of those in need, underscores the risk of systemic exclusion. By contrast, Italy's example shows that well-designed guarantees can keep the housing market accessible for younger generations. As global interest rates remain elevated, the ability of governments to bridge the gap between credit supply and housing demand will be a key determinant of social stability and economic resilience.