The world’s leading climate monitors have confirmed that El Niño is now under way in the equatorial Pacific, and the latest forecasts suggest it could intensify into one of the most powerful events in decades. Viewed from Washington, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 63 per cent probability of a “very strong” El Niño between November and January, a threshold that would place it alongside the disruptive episodes of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16. In a joint appeal, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme warned that the phenomenon, which raises sea-surface temperatures and disrupts global weather patterns, could trigger droughts, floods and record heat, and called for additional funding to pre-empt humanitarian crises. Meteorologists in Brazil have already detected a new oceanic heat wave advancing across the Pacific, reinforcing signals that a so-called “Super El Niño” is taking shape.

Across Latin America, governments are calibrating their responses to a phenomenon whose impacts vary sharply by region. In Argentina, the agricultural sector is on alert: the National Institute of Agricultural Technology sees elevated rainfall probabilities over the La Plata Basin, a breadbasket region where excess water can quickly turn from boon to flood damage if drainage and planting schedules are not carefully managed. Brazil’s federal government has installed an inter-ministerial situation room, coordinated by the Casa Civil, to unify the efforts of 20 ministries. The country’s south faces a heightened risk of inundations, while the north and northeast are likely to endure severe drought. In Colombia, authorities in Norte de Santander have urged municipalities to secure firefighting agreements and warned residents against so-called controlled burns that often escape and become forest emergencies.

The human and economic toll is expected to be felt well beyond the farm gate. In Mexico, the seasonal heat wave known as the canícula is set to combine with El Niño, and forecasters say the pairing could produce the most extreme temperatures of the decade. Health officials across the affected regions are advising hydration and caution, particularly for the elderly and those with respiratory or cardiovascular conditions. In the transition zones—such as the Campinas area of São Paulo state—researchers anticipate both intense heat and erratic rainfall, a combination that could drive up energy bills as air-conditioning use surges, strain water supplies, and push food prices higher through crop losses and logistics disruptions.

Analysts in London and Geneva note that while El Niño is a naturally recurring phenomenon, its societal consequences are anything but inevitable. The UN’s early appeal reflects a growing consensus that anticipatory action—pre-positioning aid, reinforcing infrastructure, and communicating risks clearly—can substantially reduce the human cost. The coming months will test whether the political will exists to match the meteorological warnings. As one Argentine agricultural expert put it, the advance notice is “an opportunity to take good decisions.” Whether that opportunity is seized will determine if a climatic event becomes a humanitarian disaster.