Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party won 438 of 486 declared seats in the 1 June legislative elections, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced on Sunday, handing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a second five-year term when parliament convenes in October. Voting took place in just 501 of 547 constituencies, with polling suspended in 15 districts across Amhara, Oromia, and other regions for security reasons; the 38 seats allocated to Tigray remain vacant because no ballot was held there. The NEBE said more than 50 million citizens had registered and turnout reached 94%, while the African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development observer missions, largely confined to Addis Ababa, described the process as orderly.

Opposition politicians and rights groups contend the result was preordained. Merara Gudina, a university professor and opposition leader who boycotted the vote, called it a “sham,” telling the Associated Press that the outcome would “negatively affect the already deteriorating stability of the country.” Yitayal Assefa, a losing candidate from the All Ethiopia Unity Party, said his participation was “about fighting for my voice” in a climate of harassment and intimidation. Most prominent critics of Abiy are either jailed, in exile, or have disappeared, and the Prosperity Party ran unopposed in 64 constituencies. International human rights organisations, citing a crackdown on journalists and civil society, have documented a shrinking of political space since the Prime Minister’s Nobel Peace Prize win in 2019.

The landslide underscores deepening centre–periphery cleavages. In Amhara, Fano militias, which seek greater autonomy, staged at least 90 clashes with security forces on election day, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project. In Oromia, the outlawed Oromo Liberation Army disrupted voting and launched multi-day attacks that killed at least 11 civilians. The total exclusion of Tigray—where a two-year war between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) killed an estimated 600,000 people—leaves the region without parliamentary representation for a sixth year. Tensions between Addis Ababa and Mekelle have resurfaced as both sides accuse each other of violating the November 2022 peace accord and move troops towards their common border. Analysts in Washington and European capitals warn that a renewed Tigray conflict could draw in neighbouring Eritrea, which, in a sharp reversal since the 2018 peace deal, has forged ties with Tigrayan leaders while accusing landlocked Ethiopia of seeking to seize its Red Sea ports.

Parliament is expected to re-elect Abiy Ahmed between late September and October, after the NEBE organises repeat voting in suspended constituencies. The Tigray seats will remain unfilled, and the electoral board has not indicated a timeline for polls there. The Prosperity Party’s overwhelming victory—mirroring its 96% share in the outgoing chamber—consolidates Abiy’s hold on power but leaves unsettled the grievances of armed movements, regional administrations, and millions of Ethiopians who could not cast ballots. With the African Union’s mediator warning that the Tigray peace process is at risk, diplomats in Addis Ababa say pressure is building for inclusive political dialogue to avert a wider fragmentation of Africa’s second most populous state.